Even with IBM pulling out of the Blue Waters project here, industry analysts say the leading-edge supercomputer could very well go on with another vendor — but quite possibly at a higher cost, and perhaps missing its fall 2012 deadline.
The building, with its advanced water cooling system — expected to become an industry standard — as well as a massive electrical infrastructure, has been largely completed for about a year, but on Aug. 6 IBM announced tersely that it was pulling out of the project and would return the $30 million it has been paid for its powerful servers.
The National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois is the leader in a consortium of institutions that want to share the enormous sustained 1 petaflop (a thousand trillion floating point operations per second) computing power.
The state of Illinois would no longer have the money to bail out an expensive project, he said, and things aren't any better at IBM.
Also, other costs were hard to control, he said.
"In order to reach their goal, very significant investments had to made in cooling and energy efficiency," he said.
"In my mind, it was clear from the beginning that the architecture NCSA had chosen was well-suited, but came with a cost. If you really want sustained petaflop computing, you need powerful memory, powerful interconnects, lots of electrical power."
Achieving supremacy became an expensive goal.
"The contract went bad," Morgan believes, "because IBM can't afford to lose the money; it's not going to use Blue Waters as a loss leader."
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